After the second John Kerry/George W. Bush debate, I knew W. Bush would lose the 2004 election.  There was no way, I thought, that any reasonable person could have watched that debate and thought that W. Bush would be competent enough to lead our country for four more years.

 

I was wrong.  Shows what I know about predicting elections, which is very little.

 

So with that caveat, here are some predictions about the 2012 primaries and election.

 

–President Obama will win the Democratic primary.  Vice President Biden will be his running mate.

 

–The top  three winners in the GOP Iowa caucus will be Bachmann, Romney, and Pawlenty, in that order.

 

–Romney and Pawlenty will do well in New Hampshire, but Bachmann’s numbers will be relatively low.  One of the top stories from the primary will be “How did Bachmann fall so quickly?”

 

–Perry will do remarkably well in South Carolina.  He may not come in first, but the media will cover his performance.

 

–After Super Tuesday, Romney and Pawlenty will be the only viable GOP candidates left.  Bachmann and Perry will continue to campaign.  The other candidates will close their campaigns.  Gingrich and Santorum will endorse Romney; Cain will endorse Pawlenty; Paul will endorse no one.

 

–Bachmann will center her campaign around targeting Pawlenty so much that commentators will say she is not running for President, but is settling some sort of Minnesota-based score.  Each hit she throws will be countered by a Pawlenty statement noting that Bachmann is all talk and serves the interests of the very few, while Pawlenty is a man of decision who serves the interests of all Americans.

 

–Pawlenty will ultimately secure the GOP nomination, in part because he will be seen as the “better man” as a result of the Bachmann fued, and in part because he will be seen as a more populist candidate than Romney.  He may choose Perry as his running mate to help secure the religious right vote.

 

–President Obama will win the election, 60/40.

 

Again, I could be wrong about all this, but I’m very confident about the first and last points above.