When I announced a couple days ago that I thought Tim Pawlenty would be the GOP candidate, I wrote that my predictions are usually wrong.  And I was right again, which means I was wrong about Pawlenty.

 

He dropped out of the race this morning, telling ABC’s This Week, “What I brought forward, I thought, was a rational, established, credible, strong record of results, based on experience governing–a two-term governor of a blue state.  But I think the audience, so to speak, was looking for something different.”

 

Pawlenty is right that he brought forward some credible bona-fides that would have made him a worthy opponent against President Obama.  But I’m not sure he is right that the voters want something different from the GOP candidate.

 

I certainly hope he isn’t making that judgement based on his performance at the Iowa Straw Poll, because he won.  His tally may have been fewer than Bachmann’s or Paul’s, but he won the Poll.

 

Why do I say that?  Because neither Bachmann nor Paul are viable candidates for the GOP nomination.  They appeal almost exclusively to either the religious right (Bachmann) or the libertarians (Paul), neither of which are a large enough bloc to carry the GOP nomination.  For them to secure the nomination, they will have to reach out beyond these blocs to the moderate Republicans, and they are too far on the fringes to make any headway among the caucus and primary voters.

 

Their victories at the Iowa Straw Poll does not reflect their potential as presidential candidates.  The poll is not representative of voters.  It’s not representative even of Iowa voters.  It’s not even representative of Iowa GOP voters.  It is, however, representative of Iowa GOP voters who are 1) at the Iowa state fair, and 2) are willing to either spend thirty bucks to pay for the privilege of voting, or to grab a free ticket from one of the candidates.  The folks who are eager enough to participate in a poll where you have to pay to play, or attend a rally to play, are going to be the hardcore fringe voters.

 

Tim would never appeal to the fringe GOP voter, so he was never going to win the Straw Poll.  But he could win the nomination.  Or, he could have if he stayed in the race.

 

With him gone, all the GOP has left are candidates who fail to be electable (Paul), rational (Bachmann, Cain, Gingrich, Santorum), or populist (Romney).  Oh, and Huntsman, too.  He’s electable, rational and populist, but unknown.